Most Common Winning Lottery Numbers Are Not the Best Numbers to Play
Last updated on October 18, 2020
If you think that picking the most common winning lottery numbers will provide a better advantage, then you are wasting your time and money. Let’s prove that.
First off, let me show you this message that I received from one lotto player:
Indeed, Mr. H.R’s frustration of playing the lottery for 20 years and getting a measly prize of $20 at the most reflects the widespread dissatisfaction of the majority of lotto players.
Hearing from people about their goal of providing the best future for their loved ones is so touching. At the same time, it makes me sad that a lot of people look at the lottery as the answer to materialize their noble objectives.
In this regard, I would like to share with you a little known secret that only people in-the-know do in the lottery. You will read more about it in this little special report called “Inverse Lotto Strategy.”
I invite you to check it out in the calculator section. It’s a priceless piece of information, and the reason you should read it is that you’ll keep losing money if you don’t. My best advice to you, please read it.
Now back to the issue at hand, let me shed light on the subject of hot, as well as cold numbers and how to play the lottery the right way.
Table of Contents
The Most Common Winning Lottery Numbers Don’t Work According To Math
Many lotto players mistakenly believe that when a number appears more frequently than others, it is bound to perform well in the next draws.
Well, it’s about time, you change the way you play lotto. Just because some numbers appear more frequently in lottery draws doesn’t mean they are the best numbers to play.
Yes, “hot numbers” don’t exist. It’s just one of the myths in the world of lottery.
If you are following my study of applied mathematics in the lottery, you will understand that the lottery follows certain immutable laws. One of these mathematical laws is called the law of large numbers or LLN. The LLN explains why choosing to play the most common winning lottery numbers is such a bad idea.
What is the Law of Large Numbers?
There are many ways to explain the Law of Large Numbers. One straightforward explanation comes from Probabilitycourse.com, which says:
The law of large numbers has a very central role in probability and statistics. It states that if you repeat an experiment independently a large number of times and average the result, what you obtain should be close to the expected value.
Another one that is equally easier to understand comes from TechTarget, which says:
The law of large numbers is a principle of probability according to which the frequencies of events with the same likelihood of occurrence even out, given enough trials or instances. As the number of experiments increases, the actual ratio of outcomes will converge on the theoretical, or expected, ratio of outcomes.
But I like the way Wikipedia puts it out which says:
In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.
The Law Of Large Numbers In Layman’s Term
LLN means that when you toss a fair coin ten times, you probably will see a significant discrepancy in the probability of the head against the tail. However, if you repeat the process one thousand times, you will see that the head and the tail exhibit the same probability.
In the lottery, this means that given enough number of draws, each ball in the number field exhibits the same probability.
For example, you may notice that some numbers appear more frequently, and some numbers don’t perform equally well. However, the LLN states that as the number of draws takes place to infinity, the frequencies of all balls in the number field will tend to even out. It means that those less frequently appearing numbers in the initial draws eventually catch up as the draw continues to take place.
This theorem has been consistently happening in any random game, most notably in the lottery. Up to this time, I have not seen any proof that picking the most common winning lottery numbers will increase your chances of hitting the jackpot prize.
But let’s take a more in-depth look at how hot numbers and cold numbers work in the lotto.
Hot Numbers Versus Cold Numbers
Let me show you why I do not recommend people using either hot or cold numbers.
For discussion, I will use the EuroMillions 5/50. The image below shows the frequency of each number from April 2004 to October 2017.
Earlier I explained that the law of large numbers states that the frequency of each number will converge in the same theoretical probability as the lotto draws take place to infinity.
In other words, those numbers on the cold side will eventually catch up soon as the number of draws progresses. This event must happen to let those numbers on the cold side even out.
Hot Numbers And Their Probability
Let’s say we take the first five hot numbers from the table above. What is the probability that these numbers will occur in the next lottery draw? Let’s find out.
First, let’s group numbers into the following color sets:
Based on those sets above, the hot numbers resemble the pattern of two cyan, two magenta, and a beige.
Using combinatorial mathematics, we know that the probability of this pattern is 0.0009557477. That probability measurement is what we get when we divide 2,025 possible combinations by the EuroMillions’ total number of possible combinations.
What the probability means is that all combinations that follow a similar “two-cyan-two-magenta-and-a-beige” sequence appear only once in every 1046 draws. If you play lotto seriously, you don’t want to put your money on a disadvantageous pattern. Do you?
Conclusively, this combination does not belong to the best probability group in EuroMillions. I would not recommend EuroMillions player to use this type of number sequence because its probability belongs to one of the worst probability group.
But most people ask.
“But Edvin, all combinations exhibit the same probability. Don’t they?”
I agree. No matter what you do, the underlying probability never changes. So even a straight 1-2-3-4-5 combination is equally likely as any balanced combinations in the universe of EuroMillions combinations.
There’s only one way to win the jackpot prize and you cannot change a mathematical calculation.
But don’t forget that variance exists since “odds” and “probability” are two different terms. In statistical science, these two terms are not mathematically equivalent.
Probability is the measurement of the likelihood that an event will occur. In contrast, odds are the ratio of success to failure.
In other words, we call it probability if we talk about your chances of winning. On the other hand, we use the term odds if we talk about a mathematical advantage (“best shot” as I like to call it).
From a different perspective, the odds will tell you exactly how not to be mathematically wrong.
Naturally, you demand a better selection of numbers with a better ratio of success to failure. (please read my article on Odds, Probability and the Lottery).
Now, evidently, those most common winning lottery numbers don’t help. So perhaps it goes to say that the lottery players are better off choosing the least appearing ones. Right? Wrong.
Let’s analyze the cold numbers then.
The Probability of the Cold Numbers
Let’s say; we take the five coldest numbers. What is the probability that the numbers will occur in the next draw? Let’s find out:
Using combinatorial computation, we can see that this pattern (two-green-and-three-magenta) belongs to one of the worst probability groups in EuroMillions.
With a probability of 0.0025486605, any number combination that follows this color pattern will appear once in every 392 draws. This combination is a little bit better than the above hot numbers. Yet, this pattern is not the best to play in EuroMillions.
See, when you play the lottery based on the most common winning lottery numbers, there is no assurance that you are playing the best pattern. The same holds for the least appearing numbers. In fact, you may accidentally play numbers that follow the pattern with the worst probability.
All Lotteries Follow The Same Principle
Let’s take a look at hot and cold numbers of other lotteries. Let’s start with Irish Lottery 6/47 from September 2015 to October 2017.
|Hot Numbers||Cold Numbers|
|Similar combinations appear once in every 249 draws||Similar combinations appear once in every 66 draws|
Again, the probabilities for both hot and cold combinations are not among the best in the Irish lottery. The most common winning lottery numbers belong to a pattern that has 0.0040232555 probability. Any combination that follows a similar pattern will only appear once in every 249 draws. The cold numbers, on the other hand, belong to a pattern that only has 0.0150872083 probability, which only appears once in 66 draws.
The Most Common Winning Lottery Numbers Of The Australian TattsLotto 6/45
|Hot Numbers||Cold Numbers|
|Similar combinations appear once in every 134 draws||Similar combinations appear once in every 38 draws|
The Hot and Cold Numbers Of U.S. Powerball 5/69
|Hot Numbers||Cold Numbers|
|Similar combinations appear once in every 250 draws||Similar combinations appear once in every 555 draws|
The Euro Jackpot 5/50
|Hot Numbers||Cold Numbers|
|Similar combinations appear once in every 196 draws||Similar combinations appear once in every 235 draws|
The UK Lotto 6/59
|Hot Numbers||Cold Numbers|
|Similar combinations appear once in every 223 draws||Similar combinations appear once in every 247 draws|
How To Generate The Best Lotto Numbers
Going back to how we use combinatorics to calculate the probability of combinations, there’s always the freedom of how you group numbers. The underlying principle of probability still provides accuracy and precision, no matter how different the structure is.
For example, in a 6/48 lotto game, we can group numbers as follow:
These sets are designed originally by a Brazilian Mathematician by the name of Renato Gianella from his probability study of the Super Sena 6/48. He published his work with the title “The Geometry of Chance: Lotto Numbers Follow a Predicted Pattern.”
Gianella’s work inspired me to delve deeply into the study of lottery probability. As I progressed in my study, I discovered that Gianella’s method, while impressive, comes with a serious weakness. It doesn’t handle a balanced distribution of odd and even numbers.
For example, a balanced low-high combination such as 2-14-28-30-44-48 may be considered best, according to Gianella’s method. However, the combination will turn out to be the worst because a line composed of all even numbers rarely occur in lottery draws.
And that’s how I discovered a new combinatorial design to improve Gianella’s system.
I invented a unique design that can handle both low-high and odd-even numbers in one combinatorial equation.
Thus, I group 6/48 lotto numbers into the following sets:
So Lotterycodex exists to share this method for the whole lotto community. (See how Lotterycodex Calculator works)
Make an intelligent decision when you play the lottery
So there, the most common winning lottery numbers don’t work. Neither do the least appearing ones. Even though those cold numbers will tend to even out, it’s not a good idea to use cold numbers. Winning lotto numbers are picked at random. The lottery is more likely to spread the probability over the entire number field.
Don’t forget. You don’t win with only one number. Right? You have to match all the six numbers. Therefore, the hot and cold numbers don’t count. It’s the composition that matters.
So if picking numbers based on the most common winning lottery numbers will not help, then what will?
Definitely, math remains the only tool, especially with the use of combinatorics and probability theory. I mentioned the free guide earlier, but I also invite you to check out my article on how to win the lottery.
Specific mathematical rules govern the lottery. Therefore to create a genuinely effective strategy, you have to learn how the lottery works based on its finite structure.
I mentioned a “finite” structure, so that means even “statistical” analysis will not also work in this kind of random game. For decades, people get mistaken belief that interpretation of the historical results will provide a clue for the next lottery draw. Nothing can be further from the truth.
So in a finite structure like the lottery, logical analysis is what works best.
We can use probability theory to determine the best, the good, and the worst type of combinations in the lottery. Fortunately, you don’t need a degree in math to make it work. You can use a lottery calculator to do the heavy lifting for you.
And to make things much easier, the Lotterycodex calculator can also generate lotto combinations for you so that everything will be delivered to you on a silver platter.
Believe it or not, the most common winning lottery numbers are not the best numbers and they don't work. Find out what math says.